Another poll shows Laurel Lee leading the GOP field in CD 15

Another poll shows Laura Lee as the heavy favorite to win a Republican primary in Florida’s 15th congressional district.

Preview of Victory published a survey of the race. The poll shows that the veteran Demetries Grimes better than some other polls indicate, but still in third place.

Pollsters found nearly 36% of likely Republican voters favoring Lee, a former secretary of state. It shows the Sen state. Kelli Stargel in second place with more than 17% but Grimes, an Afghan veteran and diplomat, close behind with just under 17%. Another veteran, Kevin “Mac” McGovernranks fourth with around 6% of the vote and represents the state. Jackie Toledo comes in last with more than 5%.

“Obviously there are three tiers of candidates,” a poll note read.

“First, Laurel Lee is the clear favorite with 35.8% of the vote. Next, Stargel leads Grimes by 0.7%, but both candidates are squarely within each other’s margin of error. Next, McGovern and Toledo make up the final group of candidates, each getting a single-digit vote share. Just under 1 in 5 voters remain undecided. How these voters break out could change the dynamics of this race (e.g., incumbency of Toledo might give him a boost due to simple name identification), but there’s no doubt that Lee is the extremely heavy favorite.

In the simulations conducted by the polling team, Lee wins in more than 99% of the scenarios.

Lee, who served as Governor. Ron DeSantis Secretary of State the majority of his first term, left the administration to run and quickly established itself as the fundraising manager.

This poll also shows that she also quickly gained notoriety and a strong net preference rating. About 52% of those polled for the poll have a positive opinion of Lee and 19% have a negative opinion.

This is after voters were bombarded with positive and negative senders primarily about the three state representatives in the race: Lee, Stargel and Toledo.

The poll shows that 32% have a favorable opinion of Stargel and 27% have a negative opinion. Meanwhile, 15% have a positive opinion of Toledo and 28% have a bad opinion.

Meanwhile, 26% have a positive opinion of Grimes, compared to just 10% with a negative opinion, and 14% think well of McGovern while 9% think badly of him.


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Jack L. Goldstein